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The economic horizons are complex for the new European Commission

24/11/2024 23:16

Euroeconomie

Euroeconomie, Macro/Scenari, Commissione europea, eurozona, Antonio De Chiara, orizzonti economici complessi, previsioni economiche poco incoraggianti, Trump, i dazi di trump,

The economic horizons are complex for the new European Commission

Sul versante finanziario ed economico la Commissione Von der Leyen II partirà con previsioni economiche triennali 2024-2026 poco incoraggianti

EN - The chronicles of European political current affairs are dominated by news about the turbulence underway in the European Parliament in view of the formation of the future European Commission, with Ursula von der Leyen a candidate to return to lead it, provided that all 26 commissioners foreseen in her "government" are approved by the Strasbourg assembly.

Now, almost five months away from the European Parliament elections, time is running out. A good five months have passed since the European Parliament elections and it is better to find an agreement as soon as possible by the deadline of November 27, when the Parliament will be called to the final vote.

Meanwhile, the history of the world goes on. Trump is about to take office in the White House and has long been brandishing the weapon of duties, announced at 60% on goods from China and between 10 and 20% for those from the European Union, aimed at some particular productions which for Italy could be agri-food products, including wine.

The new European executive will have to inaugurate its mandate on the financial and economic front on the basis of the three-year economic forecasts for 2024-2026, made public by the European Commission on Friday 15 November, according to which the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Eurozone will float below the 1% threshold, in 2024 at 0.8% and with a prospect of doubling in 2026.

 

IT - Le cronache dell'attualità politica europea sono all'insegna delle notizie sulle turbolenze in corso al Parlamento europeo in vista della formazione della futura Commissione europea, con Ursula von der Leyen candidata a tornarne alla guida, a condizione che tutti i vicepresidenti esecutivi e i commissari previsti nel suo “governo†vengano approvati dall’assemblea di Strasburgo. 

Sono trascorsi ben cinque mesi dalle elezioni del Parlamento europeo ed è meglio trovare al più presto un accordo entro la data-limite del 27 novembre, quando il Parlamento sarà chiamato al voto finale.

La storia del mondo, intanto, va avanti. Trump è prossimo ad insediarsi alla Casa Bianca e brandisce da tempo l’arma dei dazi, annunciati al 60% sulle merci in provenienza dalla Cina e tra il 10 e il 20% per quelle in provenienza dall’Unione europea, mirati su alcune particolari produzioni.

Il nuovo esecutivo europeo, sul versante finanziario ed economico dovrà inoltre inaugurare il suo mandato sulla scorta delle previsioni economiche triennali 2024-2026, rese pubbliche dalla stessa Commissione venerdì 15 novembre e non del tutto incoraggianti, seppur orientate ad attribuire valori incrementali alla crescita del prodotto interno lordo (Pil) nell’Eurozona. 

Si prevede un galleggiamento sotto la soglia dell’1%, nel 2024 ferma allo 0,8% e una prospettiva di raddoppiare nel 2026 mentre il deficit annuale in area euro è previsto in riduzione dal 3,0% del 2024 al 2,8% nel 2026.

Questi i dati, non proprio incoraggianti per il futuro dell’Unione Europea costretta a muoversi in un contesto politico precario tanto al suo interno che nel resto del mondo.

 

Antonio De Chiara @euroeconomie.it


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